WINNING STREAKS

Posted on October 26, 2011 by tHE bIG pOSSUM

I am constantly asked about winning and losing streaks and why I say “never quit a winning streak” and “always quit a losing streak”

The comments are usually; if you have won four or five times in a row you are probably going to lose the next bet or if you have lost four or five times in a row, you are more likely to win the next bet.

Nothing could farther from the truth, the last win or loss has nothing to do with the next.

One friend of mine recently told me after she wins two or three bets in a row she drastically reduces her bet because the odds of winning a fourth or fifth bet in a row are far too great.

On the surface I would have to agree, the odds of winning four or five times in a row are pretty rare, if we use the coin flip as an illustration (I like the coin flip because it is a 50/50 proposition).

The odds of you flipping heads five times in a row are one in thirty-two attempts or 31 to 1, not very good. But here is the hard thing for most gamblers to recognize; you are not betting on heads hitting five times in a row. You are betting on heads coming up next, and that is just as likely to happen as not. The odds are 1 to 1, 50/50, even money; however you want to say it.

So once you have won four times in a row (or in this case heads has come up four times in a row) the odds of hitting the fifth time are no longer 31 to1, they are 1 to 1.

Always remember this, the coin, the dice, the ball, the cards, none of them have memories, they don’t know what they have done before and the next flip, or roll, or spin, or deal has NOTHING to do with the previous.

The odds of that next coin flip are exactly what they were on the first flip.

Just because you have won four in a row doesn’t mean you are any more likely to lose than to win, the odds are still 50/50.

So why do I say, “never quit a winning streak and always quit a losing streak?”

The answer is really quite simple, you never know when one is coming or how long it will last, so if you are on a winning streak…play it out, on the other hand if you are on a losing streak, walk away to play another day.

Know your play. Know your way.

Posted in Casino | 6 Comments

BANKROLL…How much do I take?

Posted on July 1, 2010 by tHE bIG pOSSUM

I have heard it said, “Only take what you can afford to lose” but to that I say phooey, don’t ever take your money to lose, instead take it to win, of course budget an amount you can afford to play with, but never take it to lose.

Now I know that might just be a matter of semantics, but attitude is part of the positive mindset you need to win, so taking money to lose is probably what you will do with it, however taking it to win, is a whole different outlook, now you still might lose, but at least that wasn’t why you took it with you.

A better question would be; how much can I afford to play with and stay within my budget?

And the answer to that is based entirely on you and how much you plan on gambling, what your level of expertise might be, what games you plan on playing, what amount you are comfortable playing, and whether you are a conservative, moderate, or aggressive gambler.

The one constant though would be playing time, if you play the slots for example, the average player pulls the handle (or nowadays pushes the button) between 400 and 900 times per hour, for this illustration let’s say you spin the reel 600 times per hour.

So if the slots are set to return 90%, then at $1 per spin times 600 spins you will be investing about $600 per hour, however if you also calculate that the machine is set at 90% return, you will probably get back close to $540 of the $600, so you are really playing about $60 per hour (the difference between $600 in play and $540 in returns).

If you want to play the slots for 3 or 4 hours per day, then you could budget $180 to $240 per day.

However, all of this could vary depending on you, you might play at a smaller or larger amount than $1 per spin, or you might spin at a lower or higher rate than 600 per hour, and as is always the case in gambling, even though the machine might be set at 90% return, you could win or lose at much different ratio, remember that 90% return is based on large numbers, in the short run of a couple of hours or even a couple of days it might return zero, of course you could also hit a jackpot or two, that’s why it is gambling.

Also if after doing the above calculation for your style of play you find it more money than you can afford, then adjust. You can adjust the amount per spin, numbers of spins per hour, playing time, etc.

You can also back into this calculation, by saying something like I am comfortable with $1000 total bankroll and I want to play $2 per spin at 400 spins per hour, how long can I play.

Using this scenario you would multiply 400 spins times $2 for $800 in total play per hour, with a 90% return of around $720 or about $80 per hour, so with $1000 bankroll you could play those one-armed bandits for twelve and a half hours, or about four hours per day.

Or you might say I want to play four hours per day. In this scenario you would divide $1000 by 12 (four hours times three days), the result would be approximately $80 per hour, so you could play $2 per spin at 400 spins per hour.

There are many way to calculate your bankroll, these are just a few, but proper session planning and bankroll budgeting in advance will make your stay more enjoyable and less likely to find you broke on the first night!

Now I know I started this blog off by saying you take you money to win, not lose. Then I calculated how much to take based on losing, so you are asking, why the contradiction?

Well, in the above formula the amount of your bankroll is based on playing time vs. house percentage, over the long run this will probably play out, but over the short run of a few hours or a few days anything is possible, both losing streaks and winning streaks. As a proponent of the “Law of Attraction”, I am taking my money to attract one of those winning streaks.

Know your play. Know your way.

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RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING Part 2

Posted on June 30, 2010 by tHE bIG pOSSUM

When planning your trip to Las Vegas, or Atlantic City, or whatever your favorite gambling spot might be, there are several things you need to take into consideration.

Transportation, hotel accommodations, food, entertainment and recreation (other than gambling), amount of time you will be spending in the casino and your required bankroll for gambling.

Keep in mind; just because you put some of this on a credit card, it is still an expense.

If you have a favorite casino you frequent several times a year you probably have a player’s card and have earned free comps for room, food, etc, so that part of the trip won’t be an out of pocket expense.

If you are planning a weekend getaway for two, your expenses might be as follows;

Air Transportation $500, car rental $150, hotel accommodations $300, meals $250, round of golf $100, show $100, and gambling bankroll $1500, so the cost of your trip would be $2900.

Now obviously these dollar amounts can be higher or lower depending on comps you might receive, how far away you are, whether you are flying or driving, where you are staying, what you do while you are there, and amount of time you will be gambling.

By listing your expenses on a sheet of paper you get a good idea of what the trip will cost, if this is not within your budget, then either adjust your plan (as to hotel, recreations, gambling bankroll, etc) to an amount you are comfortable with or don’t make the trip this time, go another day. However, if this is within your budget, then go for it and have a great time.

You have probably noticed that I have listed the $1500 gambling bankroll as an expense, the reason is; that is exactly what it is, an expense. Now it is a variable expense, you might only lose $500, or you might win $1000, in either case that simply means your trip cost you less. If you lose $500, then the $2900 trip only cost you $1900, if you win $1000, then the $2900 trip only cost you $400, and even if you lose the entire $1500 that just means your $2900 trip cost you $2900.

One last thing unless you are extremely disciplined, I also recommend leaving your ATM card at home, the one thing you NEVER want to do is exceed your planned budgeted amount…in another words DON’T get more cash to gamble with, you planned on $1500, then STOP at $1500.

This game plan is responsible gambling.

Know your play. Know your way.

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RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING

Posted on June 29, 2010 by tHE bIG pOSSUM

I have been gambling in casinos for over 40 years, I guess you could say it has been my hobby as well as my passion, next to taking in a baseball game or spending time with my family there is nothing else I’d rather be doing. I am as much at home in a casino as almost anywhere else.

Having said that, I am NOT addicted to gambling or obsessed with it to the point that it interferes with anything else going on in my life. I have always treated it as a recreational hobby. I have never gambled the rent money nor ever taken more than I could afford to play. I consider myself a responsible gambler.

Now that doesn’t mean that on those occasions when I have had a losing session that it didn’t hurt, because sometimes it did, but that is the price you pay as a gambler. And as long as you are working within the framework of recreational hobby and are being truthful to yourself, not taking money that you can’t afford to gamble with, then you are being a responsible gambler too.

However, there is a much larger problem out there with those that are obsessed and/or addicted to gambling, those that gamble the rent money and beyond. For those people The Gambling Mind and tHE bIG pOSSUM highly recommend they seek help.

There are several web sites that are a good starting place for those that are or know someone in need of help. www.gamblersanonymous.org and www.ncpgambling.org are two that The Gambling Mind would point you  toward.  And even the casinos themselves can and will help if you or someone you know needs help, don’t be afraid to ask.

The Gambling Mind and tHE bIG pOSSUM are STRONG ADVOCATES for responsible gambling!

Know your play. Know your way.

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“ANY CRAPS”, ANYBODY?

Posted on March 5, 2010 by tHE bIG pOSSUM

rolling diceIn a recent trip to the great state of Nevada, I was again reminded of how many players make the big mistake of betting “Any Craps” at the craps table. That is betting a 2, 3, or 12 will come on the next roll of the dice.

I guess they think they are protecting their “Pass Line” bet. But, in reality all they are doing is increasing the house advantage.

This bet has never made any sense to me, unless you are betting the “Don’t Pass”; then just like betting the “11” on the come out roll for the “Pass Line” player you at least a have the chance to win both bets.

Although betting the 11, because of house percentage and odds to win, is not a good bet either, at least I understand why you would make this bet, just like I could understand a “Don’t Pass” bettor playing “Any Craps”.

But when  you bet “Any Craps” as a “Pass Line” player you are actually betting against yourself, you have to lose one bet to win the other, so that puts the player in a lose-lose situation and the casino in a win-win situation. Not a very smart play.

If you have a $5 “Pass Line” bet and make a $1 “Any Craps” bet you are actually doubling the house advantage from 1.41% to 3.03%.

If you have a $10 line bet and are making a $4 horn bet (2, 3, 11, and 12) you are giving the house 5.77% on your play.

And if for some crazy reason you are making a $5 line bet and a $4 “Horn” bet, it is more like the “Pass Line” bet is now protecting your “Horn” bet, because you are giving the house an 8.19% advantage between both bets (“Horn” bet alone has 16.67% house advantage).

So no matter which way you look at it, there is absolutely no percentage in playing “Any Craps” ANYTIME!

Know your play. Know your way.

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THINK POSITIVE…YOU CAN WIN!

Posted on February 23, 2010 by tHE bIG pOSSUM

I was recently interviewed by my son Mike Shippey for a book he is writing on positive thinking, by the way you should go see his web site www.habitualvictory.com he really has some good insights on life!

Anyway, during the interview I was reminded of several things that have become second nature to me and I have just taken for granted when it come to casino gambling and thought I might share one or two.

blackjack 2First of all positive thinking or optimism are a key foundation to winning in the casinos, or even in life itself.

Believing you can do something is necessary before you can actually do it.

Now when I say positive thinking or optimism I am not talking about hoping or wishing, I am talking the belief you can actually do something, for me that was winning in casinos.

Long before I started gambling in casinos, while in High School, I read a book by Napoleon Hill called Think and Grow Rich, I can’t tell you a lot about that book since it has been nearly 45 years since I read it, but the one thing I took away from it and have tried to apply to almost everything I do or have done is this, and I will paraphrase:

“The mind has no limitations except those you acknowledge”

Now I admit I have a lot of limitations that I acknowledge, so my mind does have its limits.

But, a few years after reading that book I made my first trip to Las Vegas and was introduced to the world of casino gambling.

I decided that I would not acknowledge any limitations when it came to the games of Craps, Blackjack, and Roulette…I knew the house percentage and odds to win were against me, but those percentages played out to the big numbers, I knew in a short run anything was possible.

I made up my mind I was going to win, and every time I went, or every table I played I knew I was going to win.

Now it didn’t always work out that way, as a matter of fact I lost on many occasions, and some of those trips were a total bust, but I never detoured from my belief that I was going to win.

Now here is the insight I was reminded of, if I was only hoping and wishing to win, then I would have just kept on going and settling for whatever happened.

But truly believing you can do something causes you take action to make that belief happen.

And that is exactly what I did, I studied the games inside and out, I learned which were the best bets to make, which ones to stay away from, I developed a casino money management strategy that included a progression strategy that would allow me to capitalize on winning streaks, rake my winnings and actually take that money home with me.

I developed a game plan that included what to do when and where, things like when to take a break, when to walk away, when to stay, where to play, what to look for, just to mention a few.

And over the years fined tuned all of that to the point I became a pretty good at the casino table games and am now a mentor for many a successful casino gambler and have even authored a few books.

I don’t know who said it, but

“…if you believe you can or you believe you can’t, you’re right…”

Remember tHE bIG pOSSUM sez: “Know your play. Know your way”

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BETTING STRATEGY

Posted on December 17, 2009 by tHE bIG pOSSUM

While proper casino money management entails several things including bankroll, buy-in, progression, table rake, and session take. We are going to focus on table play and progressions.

You really have only three choices when you play the table games at a casino, 1- you can either increase your bet when you lose (Martingale System), 2- keep your bet the same, win or lose, or 3- increase your bet when you win.

If you increase your bet when you lose, you are in essence chasing your money, and this way of betting has two major flaws, one is the amount of money it takes; the other is the house limit. This would NOT be my recommended way of playing.

If you keep your bet the same every time, you will likely never win or lose very much and you will certainly increase your playing time. However over the long run the house advantage will eat into your bankroll. But, if you are an ultra conservative player and not looking for a big win, this might be an applicable style of play.

The third choice is to increase your bet when you win. The advantage to this style of betting is if you catch that winning streak and progress your bet properly you will WIN!

roulette wheel 2With choice #3 you are playing for a winning streak, and in a game of random returns like roulette and/or craps anything is possible in the short run including winning streaks. This is even more applicable to a ‘skill’ game like blackjack.

Let’s examine that philosophy a little closer, using the most obvious 50/50 return; the flip of a coin. The odds say it will come up heads as many times as tails, however if you flip that coin 10 times, it might come up heads 6 times and tails 4 times, or even 7 heads and 3 tails, however flip that coin 1,000,000 times and more than likely you will see both close to 500,000. Over the long run it will play out to a 50/50 proposition, however in a short run anything is possible.

Also, one other thing that will likely never happen is heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails, it usually comes up heads multiple times and/or tails multiple times, making winning streaks (as well as losing streaks) more common than most think possible.

So if you are playing for the winning streak increase your bet when you win, and decrease or keep your bet the same when you lose.

If you are playing a bet that is close to 50% chance to win (i.e. odd/even or red/black in roulette, or pass line or don’t pass line in craps) then increasing your bet every time you win is a good strategy, because consecutive wins in a row are more likely than with a bet that has only 2% chance of winning.

On a bet like this your progression might be $5, then $10, then $15, then $25, keep increasing it as you continue to win, if you catch 5 or 6 in a row you will win a significant amount of money, and those 5 or 6 wins in a row do come!

However on the bet that only has a 2% chance of winning (i.e. one number straight up in roulette), a winning streak would probably not be consecutive, it could happen, but EXTREMELY UNLIKELY, it would be more along the lines of hitting that number twice in 10 spins or 3 times in 20 spins, so your progression might be $1, if it wins then bet $2 for the next 10 spins, if it hits again, then bet $3 for the next 10 spins, I would keep doing this as long as it kept coming up, but if after 10 spins it does not come up then revert back to your original bet, you will still have a net gain.

This is why knowing the odds to win a bet and the house percentages are so important to you. It helps you determine what bets to make and what progression to use.

Know your play. Know your way.

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ROULETTE PLAYING STRATEGIES

Posted on December 15, 2009 by tHE bIG pOSSUM

Now that you know how to play the game of roulette, are familiar with how the buy in works, and the know difference between odds to win and house advantage, let’s look at the best plays.

The unique thing about roulette is all the bets have the same house advantage (5.26%), except one. So you can factor out the casino edge and focus on the odds to win, when choosing your bet.

First let’s also eliminate the “First Five” bet, since it has the highest house advantage (7.89%) and the odds to win are only 13.16% of the time. Remember you are trying to get as close to 50% chance of winning as you can and keep that hose percentage to around 5% or less, this bet misses on both counts.

There are really only 6 bets that are close to 50%, all of which the odds to win are 47.37% of the time, they are; 1-18, 19-36, odd, even, black, and red. Playing any one or combination of these bets would be a smart play.

However, having said that, the nature and excitement of the roulette wheel is to make multiple bets and hit your lucky number straight up.

So another smart play might be to pick your lucky number, play it, along with its color, and the column that contains that number. That way if you hit you win them all, but even if you don’t hit your lucky number you could still win one or both of the other bets.

Be careful, especially at the roulette table not to bet against yourself, in other words if you choose an even number for your lucky number, don’t bet odd. While some might think you are protecting your bet, you are actually giving the house an added advantage in your play.

Know your play. Know your way.

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ROULETTE ODDS TO WIN/HOUSE PERCENTAGE

Posted on December 12, 2009 by tHE bIG pOSSUM

The difference between odds to win and house advantage is odds to win is the chance of you winning a particular bet, for example, in roulette if you play one number the odds of you winning are 1 in 38 spins (there are 38 possibilities 1-36 plus 0 and 00) or 2.63% of the time.

House advantage is the casinos take from that bet, to follow the above example, if there was 0% house advantage and you played $1 on your favorite number, you would be paid $37 every time your number came up, which by the odds would be once in 38 spins, so you would win $37 once in 38 spins and lose $1 37 times in those 38 spins. Win $37, lose $37 net gain for you and the casino $0.

However, the casinos only pays you $35 for that win, so in 38 spins you win $35 once, and lose $1 37 times for a net gain of minus $2. The casino gets that $2, so for every $38 bet, the house rakes $2 for an advantage of 5.26%  

So in odds to win; the higher the percentage the better chance you have to win, and in house advantage; the lower the percentage the better the payout.

Obviously a bet with a 50% chance to win and 0% house advantage would be perfect, but it doesn’t exist, so try to get as close as you can. In the above example (one number) you have only have a 2% chance of winning and the house is getting 5% of everything you bet.

Knowing the odds to win a bet and the house percentage are keys to winning, no matter which game you choose to play.

Roulette is unique in the house percentage because all except one bet have the same 5.26% edge.

The only bet with a higher house take is the “First Five”, with 7.89%.

Below is a table of odds to win and house percentage.

BET ODDS NAME ODDS to WIN   HOUSE %
           
Any One Number 35 to 1 Straight Up 2.63%   5.26%
2 Numbers 17 to 1 Split 5.26%   5.26%
3 Numbers 11 to 1 Street 7.89%   5.26%
4 Numbers 8 to 1 Corner 10.53%   5.26%
5 Numbers 6 to 1 First Five 13.16%   7.89%
6 Numbers 5 to 1 Six Way 15.79%   5.26%
12 Numbers 2 to 1 Dozen or Row 31.58%   5.26%
18 Numbers 1 to 1 Outside 47.37%   5.26%
Odd Numbers 1 to 1 Odd 47.37%   5.26%
Even Numbers 1 to 1 Even 47.37%   5.26%
Black Numbers 1 to 1 Black 47.37%   5.26%
Red Numbers 1 to 1 Red 47.37%   5.26%

 

Know your play. Know your way.

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CHIPS AT THE ROULETTE TABLE

Posted on December 11, 2009 by tHE bIG pOSSUM

In most casino table games when you buy in you are given chips (technically called checks) that have cash value, they generally come in color and denominations of; White $1, Red $5, Green $25, and Black $100, depending on the amount you buy in for the dealer will give you chips accordingly.

However, unlike the other table games, when you buy-in at a roulette table, you get your own colored chips; these chips have no cash value and are used for play only at the roulette table only. They have no denomination imprinted on them and each player gets their own color.

This is done so there is no confusion of which bet belongs to which player, since each player has their own color, usually pink, light blue, light green, orange, light red, etc. They are usually very colorful chips and quite different from the standard chips (or checks) with the dollar value imprinted on the chips.

The denomination or value of the chip is determined by you. When you buy in you tell the dealer what denomination you will be playing ($1, $5, $25, etc.). He then places a chip of your color on the side of the wheel with a marker identifying the denomination you are playing.

The croupier (or dealer) will pay your winning bets with the same color of chips.

All of your chips have that same value, when you are finished playing, the roulette chips are then exchanged for real chips (or checks) that you can redeem for money at the cashiers cage.

Know your play. Know your way.

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